Save the forecast before the event
A public record needs evidence of what was stated before kickoff. Store the fixture identity, expected start time, publication time, model version and complete probability distribution. A screenshot without a reliable timestamp is not a substitute for a consistent publication record.
Keep the original entry when a forecast changes. Record the revision time, changed inputs and new estimate separately. Readers should be able to tell whether they are viewing the first forecast, a later pre-match update or a post-match explanation.
Define settlement and exclusions in advance
Specify whether outcomes use regulation time, extra time or another match definition. State how postponed, cancelled, abandoned and disputed fixtures are handled. A cancelled fixture should not become a success or failure merely because doing so improves the reported result.
As an illustrative example, a record of 100 published forecasts with 90 verified outcomes and ten unresolved fixtures must show both numbers. Reporting only the resolved subset without the unresolved count hides coverage. The unresolved fixtures should remain visible until their status is established.
Make the summary reproducible
Publish the scoring convention and evaluation period. Include every eligible forecast, not only favorable teams or leagues. Report sample size beside any calibration or accuracy figure. If the underlying rows are not available, describe the limitation instead of presenting the summary as independently audited.
Match Insights currently labels its service as a free research preview. Its forecast record must not imply independent verification that has not occurred. Linking to the methodology, preserving original snapshots and keeping uncertain outcomes unresolved are necessary steps before making performance claims.
Common question
Can a forecast be edited after publication?
A revision can be published, but the original forecast and its timestamp must remain available. Post-event edits must not replace the original evaluation input.
Sources and further reading
Continue your research
- Calibration, Brier score and football forecast accuracy
- A football match research checklist
- How to read football match probabilities